insert trendy buzzword here

“Which illustrates the next incontrovertible fact about game theory: In the foreboding world view of rational choice, everyone is a raging dirtbag. Bueno de Mesquita points to dictatorships to prove his point: “If you liberate people from the constraint of having to satisfy other people in order to advance themselves, people don’t do good things.”

A man and a plan; NYU professor Bueno De Mesquita has worked to successfully predict the future outcome of major political and business events through computer modeling with an powerful 97% accuracy. He may have had this quote right in his prediction of relieving the masses from the constraint of having to satisfy other people. Will the hemorrhaging profits of record labels finally force them to close up shop?

As the machine of churning out well known artists grinds to a halt and the publics tithing’s dry up we will see a death to big name record labels and artists as we know them. What would Mesquita predict about the music industry?

I believe he would say complete failure; and here’s why:

• Music just isn’t that valuable- We can all live with out the hypnotic strumming of a cello or the ear piercing grunts of the next door neighbor’s whammy bar laden Police cover songs. Music is not essential to life. Marilyn Manson had it right in his Rolling Stone interview on the future of music when he said “Things have become devalued to the point where people don’t realize the repercussions.” Yes arguable we have always had some form of music and thus are quintessential to some. But have we always passed out shillings for a take home version of the local lute playing vagabond? Only those who can afford to have the ability but often times lack the motivation. With the unwavering marketing messages being plucked for other wants turned necessities. According to the “The New Nostradamus” we will not pay when we can get it with out satisfying others and will even go out of our way not to satisfy others.
  

• Music has become commoditized- Don’t believe me? Turn on American Idol and get an ear full of McMusic in full force. Every musician is now interchangeable with the right digital gloss overs you would have never known Led Zeppelin broke up even Tupac is still breaking new releases. Marketing is the back bone of the industry today. The “who is hot” factor is largely based on who is in charge of their public relations, advertising, online presence, and marketing. Further evidence take one Joshua Bell musical genius auditorium selling out violinist add one $3.5 million dollar Stradivari violin and a twist of the D.C. Metro. End result; “Twenty-seven gave money, most of them on the run — for a total of $32 and change. That leaves the 1,070 people who hurried by, oblivious, many only three feet away, few even turning to look.” Honestly nobody cares who you are unless they know you, thus you are a faceless commodity plucking your violin. How do they get to know you? Brand differentiation through marketing, advertising, PR, etc. How do things like this happen in the real world? With everybody and their mother trying to leverage the “tipping point” word of mouth epidemic and the barrage of “grass roots” services cutting through the commodity clutter is more expensive in terms of time and money than ever.
  

   

• The future of bands is bleak- I sh*t you not. Get this in the 80’s people still paid for music still bought merchandise and we see sold out shows still today of the glam rocking bands. What bands from the early 90’s have a real fighting chance “The Spin Doctors,” “Hootie,” or “Ace of Base?” Bands today as much as we love our favorite hit of the week are not sustainable. Although I agree with Wyclef Jean in his thoughts on the future of the immediate future of the industry; “The strong will survive.” How strong can a band with a seemingly shorter and shorter 15 minutes of fame be? The encore career of a Britney Spears or Justin Timberlake is just not there. Sure they may still tour but they won’t be selling any records ten years from now. Furthermore the future is especially bleak for the lesser known bands that have yet to form a true “cult” following.
  

What do you think? What are you pretending not to know? What is the truth of the industry?